If you’ve been keeping up with real estate news, you may have noticed reports claiming that home prices are staying flat. At first, that might seem easy to understand. However, the truth is a bit more complex. In many markets, home prices are actually far from flat and continue to show movement.
What the Data Really Shows
While home prices have certainly cooled from the rapid, unsustainable surge seen between 2020 and 2022, the degree of change varies widely across the country.
Recent data from ResiClub and Zillow, covering the 50 largest metropolitan areas, highlights this divide clearly. The market tells two different stories depending on where you look. In half of these metros, prices continue to edge upward as demand stays strong. In the other half, prices have softened slightly, reflecting more balanced conditions between buyers and sellers. (See graph below)
This split shows just how local real estate truly is. National averages don’t always capture the full picture, so understanding your area’s specific trends is key when making any real estate decision.
The key takeaway is that “flat” doesn’t mean home prices are steady everywhere. The data shows that price trends vary widely depending on your local market.
One major factor driving this divide is inventory. The Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) at Harvard University notes, “price trends are beginning to diverge in markets across the country. Prices are declining in a growing number of markets where inventories have soared while they continue to climb in markets where for-sale inventories remain tight.”
When these contrasting trends are averaged together, the result may appear flat at the national level, but that number doesn’t reflect what most markets are actually experiencing. The reality is much more nuanced, and you deserve to understand what’s happening where you live.
If you’re concerned about areas showing slight price declines, keep in mind that those markets often saw the steepest increases during the past few years. Home prices rose about 50% nationally over the last five years, and in some regions, the jump was even higher. Even with modest pullbacks, many homeowners remain well ahead in terms of equity and long-term value.
The fundamentals of today’s housing market remain strong, and experts do not expect a nationwide price drop.
So, what’s most important for you to know? Real estate is local. Whether you’re buying or selling, understanding the trends in your specific market is key to making smart, confident decisions.
If You’re Buying…
It’s important to understand what’s happening in your local market because it affects everything from how quickly you need to make an offer to how much negotiating power you have once you do.
- In areas where prices are still rising, waiting too long could mean paying more later.
- In markets where prices are easing, you may have an opportunity to negotiate for extras such as repairs, seller credits, or help with closing costs.
The bottom line is that knowing your local market trend puts you in control. When you have the right insight, you can make confident, informed decisions that help you reach your real estate goals.
If You’re Selling…
You’ll want to stay aware of local market trends so you can price your home confidently and understand how much room there may be for negotiation.
- In areas where prices are still moving upward, you may not need to make many compromises to sell your home successfully.
- However, if prices in your area are softening, setting the right price from the start and staying open to negotiation becomes even more important.
The key takeaway for homeowners is clear. Sellers should work with an experienced agent who understands the local market and can guide them in making smart pricing decisions. Homes that are priced correctly are still selling, and having expert insight can make all the difference.
The Real Story Is Local
National averages can be useful for spotting general trends, but real estate always comes down to what’s happening locally. Conditions in your zip code may look very different from the national picture. As Anthony Smith, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains:
“While national prices continued to climb, local market conditions have become increasingly fragmented… This regional divide is expected to continue influencing price dynamics and sales activity as the fall season gets underway.”
That’s why the smartest approach, whether you’re buying or selling, is to work with a local real estate expert. An experienced agent will understand your specific market and can show you whether prices in your area are steady, rising, or softening slightly. Their insight and data-driven guidance can help you make confident, well-informed decisions about your next move.
Bottom Line
Headlines that claim home prices are flat might catch your attention, but they don’t tell the whole story. The truth is that what’s happening nationally often looks very different from what’s happening in your own neighborhood.
Has anyone taken the time to walk you through what’s really going on in our local market right now?
If you want the full picture of how prices are moving in your area, let’s connect. We’ll help you understand the trends that matter most to you and what they mean for your next move.
