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Worried About a Housing Crash? The Numbers Tell a Calmer Story

Chris Johnson  |  September 1, 2026

A recent Talker Research survey asked Americans to choose one word that best describes how 2026 has felt so far. The top answer? Stressful. And with everything that’s happened this year, it’s easy to understand why.

So, if you've been putting off buying or selling a home while waiting for things to feel a little more settled, you're certainly not alone. But here's the interesting part: you may be waiting for a sense of stability that’s already showing up in the housing market. While there’s been plenty of uncertainty elsewhere, the housing market has become more stable than the headlines might suggest. The data tells the story.

Home Prices Have Leveled Out

After several years of rapid price increases, home values have settled into a much steadier pattern. Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that home prices have remained remarkably consistent over the past four years (see graph below): 


And experts expect that stability to continue. As Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality, explains:

"In 2026, we expect home prices to remain broadly stable, with modest appreciation at a national level."

In other words, we're not looking at dramatic price swings. Instead, the expectation is for gradual, steady growth. That's a much healthier market environment. Of course, local conditions can vary depending on where you live, but this kind of stability at the national level can make it easier to plan your next move, whether you're buying or selling.

The Supply of Homes for Sale Has Steadied

For years, the number of homes available for sale has been constantly changing. Inventory fell sharply during the pandemic, then steadily recovered as more homes returned to the market. Now, that growth is starting to level off. According to Realtor.com, current inventory is nearly in line with where it was at this point last year (see graph below): 


That stability is useful whether you're buying or selling. When inventory remains relatively steady, you have a clearer picture of what to expect, from the number of homes available to buyers to the level of competition sellers are likely to face. 

Mortgage Rates Found Their Range

Yes, mortgage rates rose sharply in 2022. But since then, they've been relatively consistent. According to Freddie Mac data, rates have remained in the 6% to 7% range for most of the past three years (see graph below): 


There was one brief spike above that range, but overall, rates have remained fairly consistent. That predictability can make it easier to plan your next move.

And because this has become a longer-term pattern, buyers and sellers have had time to adjust. Buyers have become more comfortable purchasing within this range, while sellers have grown accustomed to listing in it.

That familiarity matters. When both sides know what to expect, they’re more likely to keep making moves instead of sitting on the sidelines waiting for rates to change. The market isn't frozen. It's moving forward at a steadier pace.

Bottom Line

There may be plenty of uncertainty in the world right now, but the housing market is showing signs of something different. Home prices, inventory, and mortgage rates have all settled into more predictable patterns.

If you've been waiting for the market to feel more stable before making a move, that stability may already be here. Let's connect and talk about what today's conditions could mean for your next step.




Holly Hatch &
Chris Johnson Luxury Homes

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